{"id":789,"date":"2025-06-24T01:34:03","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T22:34:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/?p=789"},"modified":"2025-06-24T01:35:37","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T22:35:37","slug":"not-41-finans-piyasalarinda-rassalligin-ayak-izleri-finans-fizigi-18-ve-nasdaq-100-endeksinde-rassalligin-ayak-izleri-finans-fizigi-19-hakkinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/2025\/06\/24\/not-41-finans-piyasalarinda-rassalligin-ayak-izleri-finans-fizigi-18-ve-nasdaq-100-endeksinde-rassalligin-ayak-izleri-finans-fizigi-19-hakkinda\/","title":{"rendered":"NOT 41 Finans Piyasalar\u0131nda Rassall\u0131\u011f\u0131n Ayak \u0130zleri F\u0130NANS F\u0130Z\u0130\u011e\u0130 -18- ve NASDAQ 100 Endeksinde Rassall\u0131\u011f\u0131n Ayak \u0130zleri F\u0130NANS F\u0130Z\u0130\u011e\u0130 -19- hakk\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yoo, hay\u0131r! Yan\u0131l\u0131yorsunuz! Ba\u015fl\u0131kta verilen yaz\u0131lar bo\u015funa yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Tersine, gayet yararl\u0131 olabilir her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 yahut al_sat\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, misalen \u015f\u00f6yle yap\u0131labilir. Diyelim ki, fiyatlar\u0131 temsil edecek 1000 terimli bir zaman serisi elde edildikten sonra 1001_inci terimin daha y\u00fcksek mi yoksa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck m\u00fc gelece\u011fi tahmini (\u015fu ya da bu y\u00f6ntem, \u00f6rne\u011fin bilinen Teknik Analiz form\u00fcllerinden yararlan\u0131larak) yap\u0131labilir. B\u00f6ylelikle, \u00fccretsiz ve zarars\u0131z finans al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 yap\u0131labilir. Ah, tabii, sanal portf\u00f6y ve ger\u00e7ek anl\u0131k veri temin eden \u015firketlerden de yararlan\u0131labilir. Ama, ba\u015fl\u0131kta an\u0131lan yaz\u0131lardaki y\u00f6ntem, her zaman, \u00f6rne\u011fin BIST ya da NYSE kapal\u0131yken de kullan\u0131labilir.<br \/>\nAsl\u0131nda, s\u00f6z\u00fc getirmek istedi\u011fimiz yer \u015furas\u0131: Ger\u00e7ek fiyat verisi i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u00f6ntem(ler) (diyelim ki, var), tamam\u0131 ile rassal say\u0131lardan olu\u015fturulmu\u015f sanal fiyatlarda da (benzetim, \u2018simulation \u2018) ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilir mi?<br \/>\n\u015eimdilik \u015fu kadar\u0131n\u0131 notlayal\u0131m; hem ger\u00e7ek fiyat veri setleri i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 y\u00f6ntemler var hem de onlar) tamam\u0131 ile rassal say\u0131lardan olu\u015fturulmu\u015f sanal fiyatlarda da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131.<br \/>\nBulmak i\u00e7in denemeye de\u011fmez mi? Ne demi\u015fler; \u2018Arayan bulur.\u2019 ve \u2018Her i\u015fde bir hayr vard\u0131r. Yeter ki, aray\u0131p bulmay\u0131 bilesin!\u2019 ve \u2018Bulanlar sadece arayanlard\u0131r.\u2019 ve daha benzeri pek \u00e7ok \u00f6\u011f\u00fct ve te\u015fvik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yoo, hay\u0131r! Yan\u0131l\u0131yorsunuz! Ba\u015fl\u0131kta verilen yaz\u0131lar bo\u015funa yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Tersine, gayet yararl\u0131 olabilir her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 yahut al_sat\u00e7\u0131 i\u00e7in. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, misalen \u015f\u00f6yle yap\u0131labilir. Diyelim ki, fiyatlar\u0131 temsil edecek 1000 terimli bir zaman serisi elde edildikten sonra 1001_inci terimin daha y\u00fcksek mi yoksa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck m\u00fc gelece\u011fi tahmini (\u015fu ya da bu y\u00f6ntem, \u00f6rne\u011fin bilinen Teknik Analiz form\u00fcllerinden [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1425,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}