{"id":545,"date":"2025-03-14T00:12:57","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T21:12:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/?p=545"},"modified":"2025-03-14T00:15:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T21:15:50","slug":"ktlev-yeniden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/2025\/03\/14\/ktlev-yeniden\/","title":{"rendered":"KTLEV, yeniden"},"content":{"rendered":"

F\u0130NANS F\u0130Z\u0130\u011e\u0130 -14-<\/p>\n

Genel anlam\u0131yla borsan\u0131n sevdi\u011fim, ilgin\u00e7 \u00f6zelliklerinden biri, hemen herkesi, kaybetse de kazansa da, \u00e7o\u011funlukla hakl\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin, EURUSD\u2019nin son y\u00fckseli\u015fi hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nceden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildiren hemen herkes, gerek\u00e7eleri gayet farkl\u0131 olsa da hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ho\u015f, y\u00fckselmeyip yatay kalsayd\u0131 ve hatta d\u00fc\u015fseydi bile bir kulp takacaklar, olur olmaz mazeretler uyduracaklar da epey olacakt\u0131.
\nBorsan\u0131n bir ba\u015fka ho\u015f \u00f6zelli\u011fi de, hemen her daim, isot ac\u0131s\u0131 gibi pi\u015fmanl\u0131k yaratmas\u0131d\u0131r, belirgin olarak da acemilerde, yeni ba\u015flayanlarda. Elindeki hisse d\u00fc\u015fer, alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa pi\u015fman olursun. Y\u00fckselir, daha \u00e7ok almam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa yanars\u0131n.
\n\u0130\u015fte bu gibi nedenlerle, i\u015fbu fakirin strateji ve takti\u011fi uzun s\u00fcreli hisse ta\u015f\u0131mamakt\u0131r. Hele \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde. BIST\u2019daki herkes (de\u011filse bile b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131c\u0131lar) hisselerini veya (uzun\/k\u0131sa) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcrelerde bozmaks\u0131z\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olsalar, BIST\u2019da likit kurulu\u011fundan muzdarip olurduk.
\nBir kezli\u011fine bile do\u011fru, yani kazan\u00e7l\u0131 tercih yapabilmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hep bilinirken, s\u0131k\u00e7a hisse de\u011fi\u015ftirmek veya ayn\u0131 h\u0131ssede s\u0131k\u00e7a pozisyon de\u011fi\u015ftirmek elbette e\u011fitimli, deneyimli ve donan\u0131ml\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektirir. Ayr\u0131ca, ba\u015fkalar\u0131nca bilinmeyen ve hatta sadece kendi geli\u015ftirip kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z y\u00f6ntem_LER_iniz (*) varsa, ne mutlu size! Bu demektir ki, herkesin bildi\u011fi, kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tekniklerden uzak durmakta yarar var.<\/p>\n

Neyse, ge\u00e7enki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda da s\u00f6z etmi\u015ftik KTLEV\u2019den. O g\u00fcnden bu yana a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130lgili haberlere https:\/\/www.kap.org.tr\/ adresinden eri\u015fmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.
\nAlttaki grafikte de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi gibi, son Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana bir bant hareketi i\u00e7indedir. Ama, logaritmik eksende. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, yerel diplerin ve yerel tepelerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00fcsl\u00fcd\u00fcr (\u2018exponential\u2019).
\nB\u00f6ylesi bir bant hareketi, olgunla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra anla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi gibi, baz\u0131 \u00f6zel Finansal Fizik y\u00f6ntemleri kullan\u0131larak da saptanabilir. Bkz. Finans Fizi\u011fi-11.
\nAlttaki grafikteki A1 al\u0131\u015f d\u00fczeyini tahmin etmek, sadece konvansiyonel teknik analiz y\u00f6ntemleriyle zor olsa da, m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Yine de, bu d\u00fczeyler atlansa bile A2 d\u00fczeyinden tedbir al\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131labilir ve A1A2 \u00e7izgisi destek olarak i\u015flev g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden emin olunduk\u00e7a, fiyatlar A2\u2019den y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, bir cesaretle lot art\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131labilirdi.
\nHani \u2018sa\u011flamc\u0131\u2019 tabir edilen karaktere sahip ki\u015filer A1, A2, S1 ve S2 d\u00fczeylerini pas ge\u00e7se de, A3, A3\u2019 ve A3\u2019\u2019 d\u00fczeylerinden al\u0131\u015flar gayet y\u00fcksek kazan\u00e7lara kap\u0131 a\u00e7abilirdi.
\nBakal\u0131m KTLEV haftay\u0131 nas\u0131l kapatacak, sonras\u0131nda ne yapacak?
\nUnutmadan notlayal\u0131m; KTLEV hem finans hem de GYO \u00f6zellikleri nedeni ile, EKGYO ile k\u0131yaslanabilir niteliktedir.<\/p>\n

(*) Teknik, s\u00f6zc\u00fck k\u00f6keni bak\u0131m\u0131ndan y\u00f6ntem anlam\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

F\u0130NANS F\u0130Z\u0130\u011e\u0130 -14- Genel anlam\u0131yla borsan\u0131n sevdi\u011fim, ilgin\u00e7 \u00f6zelliklerinden biri, hemen herkesi, kaybetse de kazansa da, \u00e7o\u011funlukla hakl\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin, EURUSD\u2019nin son y\u00fckseli\u015fi hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nceden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildiren hemen herkes, gerek\u00e7eleri gayet farkl\u0131 olsa da hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ho\u015f, y\u00fckselmeyip yatay kalsayd\u0131 ve hatta d\u00fc\u015fseydi bile bir kulp takacaklar, olur olmaz mazeretler uyduracaklar da epey olacakt\u0131. Borsan\u0131n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1425,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}