{"id":256,"date":"2024-11-09T00:36:05","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T21:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/?p=256"},"modified":"2024-11-09T00:38:26","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T21:38:26","slug":"not-6-kani-otesi-berisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/2024\/11\/09\/not-6-kani-otesi-berisi\/","title":{"rendered":"NOT 6 Kan\u0131, \u00f6tesi berisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018NOT 5 ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri hakk\u0131nda\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131ndaki bir \u00f6nceki notta \u201cYar\u0131nki ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri\u2019nin EURUSD lehine olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.\u201d demi\u015f idik ve yan\u0131ld\u0131k. Yan\u0131lmasayd\u0131k ne de\u011fi\u015fecekti? Hemen hemen hi\u00e7!<br \/>\n\u2018Kan\u0131\u2019, \u2018kanmak\u2019, \u2018kand\u0131r\u0131lmak\u2019, \u2018kand\u0131rmak\u2019 s\u00f6zc\u00fckleri ayn\u0131 k\u00f6ktendir ve bir finans i\u015flemcisinin (\u2018trader\u2019) asla yapmamas\u0131 gereken i\u015flerdendir, kendisinin yahut ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re davranmak.<br \/>\nDikkati okuyucu fark etmi\u015f olmal\u0131; \u201cYar\u0131nki ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri\u2019nin EURUSD lehine olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.\u201d c\u00fcmlesinin hi\u00e7bir gerek\u00e7esi, dayana\u011f\u0131 yok. Zaman s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 da yok.<br \/>\nYani, s\u00f6z\u00fcn d\u00fcz\u00fc, do\u011frusu, k\u0131sas\u0131 \u015fudur: De\u011ferlendirmeye de\u011fer bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc (tahmin, \u2018forecast\u2019, \u2018foresee\u2019, \u2018prediction\u2019) bir dayana\u011fa (gerek\u00e7eye) ve zaman limitine sahip olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nHani derler ya, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201c\u201414:00\u2019ten sonra arayaca\u011f\u0131m.\u201d, i\u015fte bu t\u00fcr ve benzeri s\u00f6zlerin hi\u00e7bir h\u00fckm\u00fc yoktur. Zira, saat 14:00\u2019ten sonras\u0131 (pratik anlamda) tan\u0131ms\u0131zd\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonsuz uzunlukta bir zaman dilimidir. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olan, saat ka\u00e7tan \u00f6nce arama yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirli olmas\u0131d\u0131r; daha iyisi, saat tam ka\u00e7ta yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n.<br \/>\nTarihin erken ve k\u0131ymetli \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden biri 28 May\u0131s M\u00d6 585\u2019e tarihlenen G\u00fcne\u015f Tutulmas\u0131\u2019na aittir. Ana kaynak Heredot Tarihi\u2019nin Giri\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde anlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, bizim Ege\u2019li, Milet\u2019li bilgemiz Tales\u2019in bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnden habersiz olan Medler ve Persler K\u0131z\u0131l\u0131rmak Deltas\u0131\u2019nda sava\u015f halindeydi o g\u00fcnlerde. G\u00fcne\u015f tutulunca bunu tanr\u0131lar\u0131n o sava\u015ftan ho\u015fnutsuzlu\u011funa yordular ve bar\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p k\u0131z al\u0131p vererek d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn dernek ettiler. (*)<br \/>\nDikkate \u015fayand\u0131r: Tales; Kopernik\u2019ten, Kepler\u2019den, Newton\u2019dan ve de Einstein\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6zlem ve kuramlar\u0131ndan habersiz idi, do\u011fall\u0131kla. Yani, nedenini bilmeksizin sonucu do\u011fru tahmin etmi\u015fti ki, bu parlak ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda, elbette yo\u011fun bir emek yatmaktayd\u0131.<br \/>\nBeri yandan da Tales\u2019in tahmini elbette G\u00fcne\u015f Tutulmas\u0131, Ay Tutulmas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6ksel olaylar\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fcselli\u011fine (periyodikli\u011fine) dayanmaktayd\u0131. (**) \u00d6te yandan ise, Medlerin ve Perslerin kan\u0131s\u0131 ortak ve daha yayg\u0131n ama ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fildi.<br \/>\nH\u00fclasa; EURUSD\u2019nin ayl\u0131k ve haftal\u0131k periyotlu grafiklerindeki \u00e7ubuklar\u0131n diplerinden ge\u00e7en d\u00fcz \u00e7izgiler, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc (bo\u015f) kan\u0131dan \u00e7ok daha k\u0131ymetlidir finans i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in.<\/p>\n<p>(*) https:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Thales_tutulmas%C4%B1<br \/>\n(**) https:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Thales_tutulmas%C4%B1#\/media\/Dosya:SoFi-584-05-28.gif<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/tr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Saros_d%C3%B6ng%C3%BCs%C3%BC<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Em.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Em-256x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"256\" height=\"300\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-254\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Em-256x300.png 256w, https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Em.png 428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Ew.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Ew-300x291.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"291\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Ew-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Ew-624x606.png 624w, https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2024\/11\/Ew.png 653w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018NOT 5 ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri hakk\u0131nda\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131ndaki bir \u00f6nceki notta \u201cYar\u0131nki ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Se\u00e7imleri\u2019nin EURUSD lehine olaca\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131s\u0131nday\u0131m.\u201d demi\u015f idik ve yan\u0131ld\u0131k. Yan\u0131lmasayd\u0131k ne de\u011fi\u015fecekti? Hemen hemen hi\u00e7! \u2018Kan\u0131\u2019, \u2018kanmak\u2019, \u2018kand\u0131r\u0131lmak\u2019, \u2018kand\u0131rmak\u2019 s\u00f6zc\u00fckleri ayn\u0131 k\u00f6ktendir ve bir finans i\u015flemcisinin (\u2018trader\u2019) asla yapmamas\u0131 gereken i\u015flerdendir, kendisinin yahut ba\u015fkas\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re davranmak. Dikkati okuyucu fark etmi\u015f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1425,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}