{"id":1706,"date":"2026-06-25T09:15:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T06:15:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/?p=1706"},"modified":"2026-06-25T09:19:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T06:19:00","slug":"grok-sunlari-da-yumurtlamis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/2026\/06\/25\/grok-sunlari-da-yumurtlamis\/","title":{"rendered":"GROK \u015funlar\u0131 da yumurtlam\u0131\u015f:"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2026\/06\/2026-06-25_09h04_10.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1705\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2026\/06\/2026-06-25_09h04_10-300x69.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"69\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2026\/06\/2026-06-25_09h04_10-300x69.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2026\/06\/2026-06-25_09h04_10-624x143.png 624w, https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/files\/2026\/06\/2026-06-25_09h04_10.png 756w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>* Her finans modeli gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma (overfitting) riski ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u011frudur!<br \/>\nYak\u0131nda yaz\u0131p yay\u0131mlamay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir yaz\u0131da, Fizik Bilgisi&#8217;nin de t\u0131pat\u0131p bu fakirin modellemelerinde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8216;ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma&#8217; y\u00f6ntemini izledi\u011finden s\u00f6z edecek idim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc her teori, \u00f6nceki deneylere dayal\u0131d\u0131r ve yeni deneylerle s\u0131nanarak ilerleyi\u015f sa\u011flan\u0131r. (#1)<\/p>\n<p>Yani, &#8216;ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma (overfitting)&#8217; olay\u0131(&lt;&#8211;bilerek se\u00e7ilmi\u015f bir s\u00f6zc\u00fck) finans modellerinde oldu\u011fu kadar t\u00fcm Bilim Bilgisi modellerinde de mevcuttur. Eh, ne yapal\u0131m ki, bu n\u00e2dan insanlar\u0131n zek\u00e2s\u0131 ancak buna yetiyor.<\/p>\n<p>(#1) Dikkatlere \u015f\u00e2yand\u0131r; Bilim Bilgisi&#8217;nde tek bir ayk\u0131r\u0131 sonu\u00e7 veren deney kuram\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kertebilirken, finans alan\u0131nda bu ZARAR demektir ve l\u00e2kin sineye \u00e7ekilip devam edilir. Finans alan\u0131nda gol yemek \u00e7ok da \u00f6nemli de\u011fildir. Elverir ki, ma\u00e7\u0131 kazanas\u0131n ve hele hele ligi \u015fampiyon olarak tamamlayas\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>* Her finans modeli gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma (overfitting) riski ta\u015f\u0131r. Do\u011frudur! Yak\u0131nda yaz\u0131p yay\u0131mlamay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir yaz\u0131da, Fizik Bilgisi&#8217;nin de t\u0131pat\u0131p bu fakirin modellemelerinde kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8216;ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma&#8217; y\u00f6ntemini izledi\u011finden s\u00f6z edecek idim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc her teori, \u00f6nceki deneylere dayal\u0131d\u0131r ve yeni deneylerle s\u0131nanarak ilerleyi\u015f sa\u011flan\u0131r. (#1) Yani, &#8216;ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriye uydurma (overfitting)&#8217; olay\u0131(&lt;&#8211;bilerek se\u00e7ilmi\u015f bir [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1425,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1425"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1706"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1706\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.metu.edu.tr\/caglart\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}